The World Bank warned on Tuesday of a “sharp and lasting” slowdown for developing countries, lowering its forecast for global growth in 2023 to 1.7% from 3% expected six months ago.
In the Middle East and North Africa region, growth is expected to slow to 3.5% this year and 2.7% in 2024, the institution points out in its latest report on the global economic outlook.
In this difficult context, the Moroccan economy would still manage to hold its own, with a projected growth rate of 3.5% in 2023. “In Morocco, growth should accelerate to reach 3.5% in 2023 and 3.7% in 2024, as the agricultural sector gradually recovers from last year’s drought. Public spending should partly offset the weakness in household consumption due to high inflation,” the World Bank points out.
It should be noted that this forecast is higher than those established by Bank Al-Maghrib (3%) and the IMF (3%), but lower than that of the HCP (3.7%). It should also be recalled that the government drew up the 2023 finance law on the basis of a growth assumption of 4% this year.
At the global level, the report paints a less than rosy picture: “Growth is slowing sharply in the face of high inflation, rising interest rates, reduced investment and disruptions caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict”.
“Given the fragile economic conditions, any new adverse developments – such as higher than expected inflation, sharp interest rate hikes to contain it, a resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic or an escalation of geopolitical tensions – could push the world economy towards recession”, noted the Bretton Woods institution, recalling that it would be the first time in more than 80 years that two global recessions occurred during the same decade.