Economic growth should accelerate to reach 3.4% in the first quarter of 2023 in annual variation instead of an increase of 0.3% during the same period of the previous year, estimates the High Commission for Planning ( HPC).
It would be mainly driven by a 6.7% recovery in agricultural value added against a backdrop of a return of favorable climatic conditions during the same period and an improvement in non-agricultural activities by 3%, specifies the HCP which has just published its outlook for the fourth quarter of 2022 and outlook for the first quarter of 2023.
National economic growth will have to show resilience if the 2023 winter climatic conditions adjust to the normal season, underlines the HCP, noting that the recovery of household purchasing power, particularly in rural areas, would be particularly sustained, allowing a increase in their consumption expenditure of 4.5% in the first quarter of 2023, in annual variation, instead of +1.1% during the same period of 2022.
On the other hand, the continued tightening of monetary policy should contribute to slowing business demand, but the growth in investment should be maintained, thanks to the strengthening of support from public spending. Overall, domestic demand should see its contribution to overall economic growth increase, to reach +3.2 points in Q1 2023, instead of +0.8 points during the same period of the year earlier, notes the same source.
By branch of activity, growth should be driven, in the first quarter of 2023, by the recovery of agricultural activities conditioned by the return to normal winter rainfall conditions, and the continued strengthening of services.